Looking for a single root-cause of both crises: the 2008 crisis of derivatives and the unfolding European debt crisis. A new reading of the ricardian law of diminishing returns

Par Lucy Badalian, Victor Krivorotov
Our model shows that it is possible to support high per-capita income in a developed country even in the situation of low/falling production margins, simply, by boosting its monetary supply. In the run-up to the 2008 crisis, generation of new moneys was indeed accelerating. Handled by the private industry via leveraging/derivatives, it carried no perceived risks/costs to the public. After the crisis, which showed otherwise, stricter regulation is placing monetary generation in the public domain, via sovereign debt accumulation. We show that, by putting pressure on discretionary income of nations and consumers, the growing debt stimulates high-margin industries promoting distinct country-wide comparative advantages by eroding anything else. The related rise in joblessness puts pressure on salaries, while local markets shrink in favor of a super-efficient global center-satellites system. This creates unique advantages for a few thriving credit oases: China, Brazil…, which become a magnet for global hi-tech companies.
JEL classification: H5, H6, E8.
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